The concept of a chokepoint, a strategic location that can disrupt global economies, has traditionally been associated with maritime straits like the Strait of Hormuz. However, as we venture into the realm of space exploration and exploitation, a new potential chokepoint is emerging in the vast region between Earth and the Moon, known as cislunar space. This article delves into the intriguing possibility of cislunar space becoming the next great geographic chokepoint and the implications it holds for the future of space exploration and the global economy.
The Emergence of Cislunar Space as a Chokepoint
The idea that cislunar space could be the next chokepoint is gaining traction among defense analysts, former NASA leaders, and Space Force planners. Marc Feldman, executive director of the Center for the Study of Space Crime, Piracy & Governance, argues that the Hormuz crisis should serve as a wake-up call for rethinking our approach to the Moon. The vastness of cislunar space is deceptive; spacecraft can only efficiently navigate through a limited number of pathways, and losing access to these routes could mean losing practical access to the Moon itself.
The gravitational dynamics of the Earth-Moon system play a crucial role. There are five Lagrange points, where the gravitational forces of the two celestial bodies and the centrifugal force balance out. These points are like gravitational sweet spots, and spacecraft can orbit around them with minimal fuel consumption. As a result, these locations become prime spots for monitoring lunar traffic, hosting long-duration sensors, and staging equipment for resupply missions.
Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine made a direct comparison, stating that the Lagrange points could become valuable chokepoints, much like the Strait of Hormuz, Gibraltar, and Malacca influence naval strategy. This raises an uncomfortable question: who will control these points and, by extension, the rules of access to the Moon?
The Future Economy and Its Impact
The potential value of the Moon and cislunar space is a key factor in determining whether this region could become a chokepoint. Peter Garretson, a defense studies expert, suggests that the current commercial value of lunar territory is small, but the expected future value is immense. He highlights that not all cislunar real estate is equal; certain areas, such as lunar orbits, Lagrange points, concentrated mineral deposits, and the lunar poles and equator, hold strategic importance.
Elon Musk's vision of electromagnetic catapults on the lunar surface launching orbital AI data centers adds a fascinating layer to this discussion. The economic logic behind this idea is compelling: the structural mass of data centers, including photovoltaics and thermal control hardware, can be sourced from the Moon at a significantly lower cost than from Earth. If even a fraction of this vision becomes a reality, disruptions to the lunar supply chain could have severe consequences, akin to closing a major strait.
The Pentagon's Response
The Pentagon is not taking any chances, and its actions speak volumes. In April 2026, the Space Force established a Cislunar Coordination Office to manage deep-space programs. This office is tasked with developing roadmaps for cislunar capabilities and coordinating efforts across various agencies, including DARPA, AFRL, and the intelligence community. The Trump administration's 2025 executive order on space superiority further emphasizes the U.S. military's responsibilities, extending from very low Earth orbit to cislunar space.
The Air Force Research Laboratory is also preparing to launch Oracle Prime, an experimental surveillance satellite that will operate in a halo orbit around the L1 Lagrange point. This satellite will provide valuable data for space domain awareness work in the region, addressing the current blind spots in the military's tracking network beyond low Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit.
Skepticism and Mixed Signals
Not everyone is convinced that the Strait of Hormuz comparison holds true for cislunar space, at least not yet. A 2024 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found no compelling near-term strategic military value in cislunar operations, cautioning against hype surrounding technological readiness and commercial demand. However, the study did acknowledge the importance of space situational awareness for surveillance purposes.
This mixed signal reflects the broader debate: the question is not whether cislunar space matters militarily now, but whether it will matter in the future and on what timeline.
Implications and Future Scenarios
If Garretson's projection comes to fruition and the Moon plays a significant role in the global economy, the implications are far-reaching. Analysts have warned that China views Lagrange points and lunar orbits as strategic key points and may declare exclusive economic zones or keep-out areas in cislunar space. Whether or not this scenario unfolds, the fact that such discussions are taking place highlights the seriousness of the conversation.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a chokepoint due to its low-cost, high-impact nature. Cislunar space is not there yet, but the Pentagon is no longer treating it as a distant future problem. It is a planning assumption, and the institutions being established are designed to ensure the U.S. is prepared for the next chokepoint.
Conclusion
The potential for cislunar space to become a chokepoint is an intriguing and thought-provoking concept. As we continue to explore and exploit space, the strategic importance of cislunar space and the Moon will likely grow. The question of who controls access to these regions and the resources they hold will shape the future of space exploration and the global economy. It is a fascinating and complex issue that warrants further discussion and analysis.
